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what position management and stop point experience do you have?

Posted by bax at 2020-04-16

Position management has a thorough understanding. You are not far from stable profits. In the last two weeks, I have been brewing a long article about high-quality dry goods that I want to write to you. I have made an in-depth analysis of a series of factors affecting the stock market, such as economy, politics, time cycle, position management, main game, fundamental research, technical analysis, etc.

The result is that the more we are brewing, the more we can not write. Because the influence of these factors on the stock market is thoroughly analyzed. It is estimated that at least one book with tens of thousands of characters should be written. I can not express myself clearly in writing hundreds of thousands of words in the official account. In fact, everyone in the stock market knows something, but most people only know this knowledge, but they can't do it. There is a little variable factor changed, and they are at a loss immediately. The difference between a master and an ordinary person is that a master thinks through the internal logic and connection of all the influencing factors, and knows which are the main influencing factors and which are the secondary ones at each stage. Thought is a process of gradual formation. To make others truly understand and have meaning, it must be logical and withstand scrutiny. It must take a lot of effort to elaborate every detail, and finally it can be understood and achieved. So if I only write a few hundred thousand words, I can't express the analysis of all these influencing factors effectively. Even if I express them, they are still wet. Just yesterday, after sending out the daily analysis, a follower said in the comment that he wanted to see my understanding of position management. Suddenly I came up with a word called serial. Since I can't write all the above analysis of the factors that affect the stock at one time, I'd better write an article separately for each of these factors. After I've written each item, I'll summarize it in a comprehensive way at last. Today, I'd like to write about my understanding of position management, which is the first draft of this big article about position management in the future. text

As for instinct, the position management of most retail investors is just because instinct is completely reversed. You can take a look at the diagram above. This is the state of most retail investors in the top area. In the bottom area, retail investors are afraid to cut their meat and empty their positions. Here's a line on the Internet to let you know what retail investors are most willing to believe among the big bull bears from 2005 to 2008: from June 2005, they began to rise

1000: China's stock market must be overturned! 1300 points: overshoot rebound, short line top 1500 points: phased top 1800 points: limit high 2200 points: the market is at high-risk point 2500 points: bubble 3000 points: 90% institutions think that breaking through 3000 points is very difficult 3500 points: the overall bubble appears 4000 points: bubble can break up 4300 points: the stock market is extremely crazy, the introduction of tax increase policy. 4500 points: the bull market just started 5000 points: the first year of the ten-year gold market 5500 points: the new starting point of the stock market 6124 points: China's stock market embarks on a new journey, On the way down (from October 2007): 6124 points: it's hard to buy cattle; 5500 points: the short-term callback is to better rise 5000 points: the long-term iron bottom, the bold purchase 4500 points: the market has fallen 4300 points: it's quite dangerous to short 4000 points: the opportunity to build a position in the middle line comes 3500 points: at present, it's not suitable to kill blindly 3000 points down: stamp duty market, 2500 points below policy iron bottom: 80% of institutions think the market has bottomed out 2000 points: it can never fall below 1800 points: China's stock market has no hope 1664 points: China's stock market must be overturned again! Most people will laugh when they see this story, because from the perspective of God, they really put you back between 2005 and 2008, and most of you will believe it. Some people say that it's very simple to speculate on stocks. It only depends on the status of most retail investors. When the big lady who sells vegetables rushes to borrow money into the stock market, she leaves the market quickly. When the God of stocks next door, Lao Wang, has lost his doubt about life and vowed to cut his flesh and never enter the stock market again, that's the bottom of history. It makes sense. Seeing this, you may think that I take the starting point and the ending point of bull market as an example of taijiduan. Next, I'll talk about the most common daily example of the instinctive position management of retail investors. China's stock market is short and long, but even if it is a long bear market, there is no trend of unilateral decline and no rebound. Once there is a rebound, retail investors are sure to grab it. Let's see the psychological process of retail investors in the rebound. Retail investors generally know a concept, and bear market is not the bottom. So in the process of short-term decline, generally no one dares to rebound. One day, suddenly a male line appears. Retail investors often wonder if the main force is attracting more, but they are afraid to miss the rebound, so they don't want to be completely short. So they start to tentatively build positions such as one-third of the positions. As a result, the next day there is another male line, which makes retail investors happy. It seems that it is indeed true Rebound, my judgment is right! At this time, analysts of stock evaluation began to vigorously publicize that the stock market rebounded. After analysis, the rebound must return to at least two-thirds of the starting point. Retail investors heard that, alas, this analyst has the same level as I thought, but he can also give the specific position of the rebound. In one stroke, he bought the remaining two-thirds positions decisively, thinking that I am now full and so on Less than half of the starting point will go out, certainly can go out, even if the quilt cover is the group of real trust that analysts think can rebound to two-thirds of the starting point of retail investors. Later, I don't say you can imagine that the moment of full warehouse is the beginning of a new round of decline. In this case, the instinctive position management of retail investors is that the rebound starts to light the position, rebounds two positive lines, remembers the heavy position, and completely reverses it. This is because retail investors naturally like to take advantage of the small advantages that they are very smart. The correct way to fight for rebound is to take out no more than half of the positions to fight for rebound on the way down, and it's the most frightening short-term sharp drop. After that, immediately make a big effort to draw back and then fall back again. When it didn't fall below the price that just fell sharply, it began to buy half of the positions at one time, and gradually reduce the positions to short positions with the rebound. Note that I said no more than half of the positions are for people with very high short-term technology, and people with average level should not rush to rebound at all. 2. There are many bestsellers about position management in the bestsellers, and I have read many of them, but few of them are of high level. Most of them can help retail investors and make them lose money faster.

Let me list some of the best sellers in the mainstream of bin management. (1) After going out of the rising trend, more and more positions will be added. In the falling trend, short positions will wait or light positions will participate in the rebound. (2) If the stock price falls by 10% and the position increases by 10%, we don't believe that the stock price can fall to one tenth of the current price. If it does fall to one tenth, it will be full, time for space, and it will always rise back. (3) Don't put eggs in one basket. Only by dispersing investment can you be safe and avoid meeting Black Swan effectively. (4) Small amount of retail funds, we must re position a share, so that we can have a chance to turn over. The above four positions management views are the most common ones in the book. I want to express that these views have some logic compared with the positions management of most retail investors who rely on instinct greedy, small and cheap psychology. But just talking about these without considering other factors, retail investors operating according to these four views tend to accelerate losses. There are specific conditions for these positions management views, not that retail investors can apply them at any time. Here is my opinion:

(1) If the stock market has been falling for several years, and then it has been trading sideways for another year or two, once it goes up and out of the trend, it can buy without thinking in the medium and long term, and at least 70% of the positions are not full, and then it can be held patiently for a long time. For retail investors, it's not necessary to buy more and more in different positions, but you have to make sure that this is the beginning of the trend, that is, the fish head has gone out The situation that comes, decisive heavy position, have callback also won't be too deep. (2) Generally, it is not recommended to buy more and fall more, which is only suitable for the short-term operation on the way down. If there are many left side trades that have fallen short-term to fight for the rebound, then if the first buying position is not the lowest point of the short-term, you can appropriately add the position after having a lower point. Note that this is about the short term. On the way down, we should never hold the idea that the long term will come back one day. Retail investors tend to change the short term into the middle term, the middle line into the long term, and the long term into contribution. On the way down, it is only suitable for short-term trading of light positions. (3) Whether to put eggs in a basket or not, I find that generally speaking, the more novice, the more likely they are to buy more stocks. I think if retail investors don't have 500W, they can't buy more than three shares at most. If there are more shares, they can't operate. China's stock market rises in a round and falls together. Therefore, in the case of small capital scale, it is more scientific to focus on two stocks, with a maximum of three stocks. The above three are mainly about the relationship between positions and the position, time and capital volume of the market. Next, I will talk about the relationship between positions and stock selection ideas. I think for a retail investor who wants to learn and grow by trial and error and want to make profits, no matter what stage or position, it's generally better to take out one or two stocks with 70% of your current position, and another 30% of your position as short-term risk preference position. It's better to specifically trade stocks you don't hold, which is helpful for learning and growth. 70% of the current positions are responsible for making profits and 30% are responsible for learning and experiencing new trading methods. Finally, I'll talk about the concept of short position. Many times, retail investors want to make money mentality can not stop, do not trade hard is a common problem for novices. In my opinion, if the market is in a downward trend, it should be short, and the short time must not be short, and it must be able to bear loneliness when it is short. I don't think that people who can't learn to short positions can make long-term stable profits in our large a shares. Even if you make more money, you will return it one day. Think about the three share disasters last year? Conclusion: position management is a systematic problem, which includes both control level factors (to solve the problem of not doing) and operation level factors (to solve the problem of how to do). Position management must be considered with other factors to be a perfect trading system. Because of the limited time and space, I've only talked about a few of my own understandings here, which will certainly not be comprehensive. But I think for novice retail investors, first of all, I've done what I said, and you should not withdraw substantially as before. In addition, I think today's article, should not be a novice read it all the time can really experience. If you can really think through every detail logic of position management, it is not far from stable profitability. I will slowly write the big article on analyzing the comprehensive factors of the stock market mentioned before, and then serialize it. Today, I just wrote a part of one of the factors. Don't worry. Writing such an article is much more tired and slow than daily analysis. A little slower will guarantee the quality. This series of articles I wrote should be integrated into a book at last, and it is more suitable for retail investors to talk about investment logic. I am confident to surpass most of the stock market investment books on the market.

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